The Draft is Upon Us

By Adam Cohen

The day of reckoning is almost upon us as they say. In just one week the draft will begin in Montreal. As all Islanders fans know, Garth Snow holds the number one pick in the draft. I'll share my opinion on what I would do if I were the GM next week, but for now I want to examine all the possibilities and what the potential fall out might be should they occur. This isn't just fan reaction, but also how the chosen player might affect the long term future.

The first and most likely scenario is the Garth Snow goes up to the podium and selects John Tavares first overall. Upwards of 90% of Islanders Country wants this to happen. It certainly will mean a big boost in terms of ticket sales. In fact, there might be a rush on the ticket table at the draft party ;). In addition, the Islanders could see immediate boost in draw on the road. They could be scheduled for Sunday afternoon games on NBC and quite possibly play the Leafs on Hockey Night in Canada. I wouldn't hold my breath on this, but with all the hype around Tavares the CBC may just want to have at least one game of his nationally televised.

While all that is very nice, it means little in terms of the on-ice product. As a player, Tavares brings something that hasn't been seen on the Island in a while, soft hands and excellent skill around the net. The last few years have seen a steady decline in goals scored by the Isles that having someone hungry to score is an essential piece to the puzzle. The two issues with Tavares as a player talked about most are his skating and his defensive play. As for his skating, when compared to the rest of his assets, yes it doesn't come close in comparison. That doesn't make it bad on its own. Within Scott Gordon's system it won't be much of an issue. Trent Hunter, who is known for being a bad skater, had an excellent season in a system that most people thought emphasized speed. Does this mean he shouldn't seek to improve his skating? Of course not. Most professional athletes try to improve as much as they can every season. As for Tavares' defensive play, I am going on record as disagreeing with much of what has been written. It is my personal opinion that with all the pressure on him to score, score, score, he might have given up some defensive development to keep his offensive numbers up. I believe Tavares can be very consistent on both sides of the puck unlike what some "experts" think.

The next two scenarios could cause a bigger riot than what occurred last year when Snow traded down to pick Josh Bailey. After the garbage throwing during the 07 playoffs, the booing at last year's draft, and the inappropriate cheering in the Coliseum, Islander fans are starting to get a bad rep like some other teams' fans that shall remain nameless. While a riot might show the passion the fans have for their team, they would be doing themselves a real disservice. Tavares certainly is the one most people want, but Victor Hedman and Matt Duchene each bring something that the Islanders desperately need.

The second scenario that could play out is Garth Snow selecting 6'6" Swedish defensemen Victor Hedman. Hedman brings with him all the makings of a franchise-level defenseman. He is big, strong with very smooth skating. He also moves the puck well and can eat up minutes on defense. Before signing Mark Streit in July of last year, it had been years since the Islanders have had a defenseman who could do it all and do it all well. One of the main problems the Islanders have had the last couple of seasons is keeping the opponents out their crease. Hedman could go a long way towards solving the problem cutting down on goals against. The most repeated negative about Hedman is he is not physical enough given his size. From my observations and reading what people who have played against him, I think this somewhat overblown. Like Tavares' skating, this is something that can be easily improved. Picking a young defenseman won't do a lot to help the Islanders score more goals in the beginning, but could decrease goal against which may lead to being on the correct side of a one goal game more often. Some think Hedman might be the most NHL ready since he played in the SEL last season, but keep in mind defenseman usually take longer to come into their own.

A third scenario would be Snow picking Brampton center Matt Duchene. Regarded as the most complete player in the draft this year, Duchene brings an all-around game that could bring envy to any team that passes on him or doesn't have a chance to pick him. Some scouts feel he hasn't been able to show his full potential playing behind 2008 Vancouver pick Cody Hodgson. From some of my observations Duchene could being back memories of Michael Peca with more offense capabilities. A good skater with great vision and never one to lapse in his own zone, could he be the second coming of Butch Goring? It's certainly possible. The two main issues with picking Duchene in my mind are his height and Josh Bailey. The Islanders lack size down the middle, and 5'11" Duchene won't do anything to solve that. Could he grow? Possible, but not a reason to make this pick. You might be wondering why Josh Bailey would be a knock against picking Duchene. I don't know what Snow's hopes for Bailey are, but if it's top line center, picking Duchene would eliminate that. Duchene has too much of an upside to be slotted on the second line.

Finally any number of different trade scenarios could play out. It's unlikely the fans would be happy with any trade Snow makes. If Snow somehow gets two out of the top three picks, the fans might be willing to forgive a trade. What would the reaction would be if this trade scenario played out. This is something I made up myself and has absolutely no chance of happening, but what if it did. Snow trades the number 1 pick and next year's first rounder along with a player and a prospect to Tampa for the number 2 pick and Steven Stamkos. No matter whom Tampa picks, Snow trades the number 2 pick and a player to Toronto for Luke Schenn and the number 7 pick. Finally he makes his pick at 7. Like I said, it has no chance of happening, but it would make for a very exciting draft.

Stay tuned to find out what I would do in the first round if I was Snow. Also, look for more posts about the prospects from the past season.